Borasky Research Journal

At the request of the Silicon Florist aka Rick Turoczy, here are my predictions for 2009. While he only asked for predictions about the local scene in the Portland area, I can't resist getting more general. After all, it is the end of the year and I am snowed in. :-)

1. PDX Technology
   
   
2. Sadly, I don't see any way to avoid job destruction in large organizations in the first quarter of the year. The lucky ones will be the ones who "only" need to institute hiring freezes. I do think the shrinkage will be smaller here than in other parts of the world, and I think the worst will be over by the end of the first quarter. General technology is too important a component of infrastructure for it to sink too low in my opinion.


3. Three technology areas where there will be intense focus, both in large and small organizations, are performance engineering / capacity planning / tuning, "green" computing and security. As you may know, the first of those three is my specialty, so I am probably biased in that respect. But organizations can no longer "just throw hardware" at scalability problems, nor do they need to tolerate poor-performing applications.


4. Some of the other posters at Silicon Florist were predicting a "march towards being the center of mobile web development", etc. While I'm not very familiar with what's going on in that arena, I think that's an over-optimistic projection for a variety of reasons.

   First of all, while gadgets and gizmos are cool, the emphasis of the incoming Congress and White House is going to be restoring the health of the Finance, Insurance and Real Estate (FIRE), transportation / automotive and other more fundamental sectors. And after that, they're going to tackle health care, science and education. While we in Portland are blessed with Tri-Met, a bicycle-friendly culture and a climate that's usually conducive to mobility, there are places that are hurting very badly. So think food, clothing, shelter, and transportation before you think "Pac-Manhattan".

   Second, there are too many competing "mobile platforms" -- Blackberry, Android, iPhone, other "smart phones", etc. They can't all thrive, and some probably won't even survive. And finally, I think that the "smarter" mobile platforms get, the more security / privacy disasters there are just waiting to happen. Still, I'm hoping someone more familiar with this technology will step in here and tell me why I should be more optimistic. :-)



5. What I think will continue to survive and maybe even thrive here is open source. Remember, though, the mantra is "Free as in freedom, not as in price." Portland is blessed with some major names in Linux, PostgreSQL, Ruby / Rails, Perl, Smalltalk / Seaside, and others. And a number of large companies here -- big names like IBM, HP, Novell, and Intel -- pay people to work on open source projects because it is in their best financial interests to do so.


6. PDX in general
   
   
7. As I noted above, we are blessed with Tri-Met and a bicycle-friendly culture, so we managed to shrug off the high gasoline prices this summer. But as the current "Snowpocalypse" has showed, we are no less vulnerable to Mother Nature than other places. There is going to be a substantial hit to local businesses from this event. Other than the standard advice of keeping emergency supplies on hand, there's not much anyone can do about it. And let me remind everyone that we live in a seismically active area, and there is more construction on flood plains than I think is wise. Let's just say I think we will have our readiness tested again in 2009.


8. I don't have children or grandchildren in school, so I'm not an expert on the situation in the educational system here. But when there's an economic downturn, the schools suffer. I think that's wrong -- very wrong. And I hope I'm wrong here, but I am predicting a decrease in the quality of public education in Portland for 2009. Again, I'm hoping someone with more knowledge will chime in and give me reasons why I should be more optimistic.


9. On a positive note, I have been and continue to be impressed -- even wowed -- by the leadership skills of the people I have met in the technology and blogging communities in 2008. I think we will see a number of successful events here in 2009 as a result of this, and I think we will see some of these leaders enter public service. I've got my number two pencil all sharpened and ready. :-)


10. Technology in general
    
    
11. I think there's going to be a major shakeout in technology. As I noted above, I think there are too many mobile platforms and too many other risk areas in mobile computing. Other "hot" areas that are vulnerable are virtualization, "cloud computing", consumer electronics in general and "social media", whatever that is. Again, think food, clothing, shelter and transportation, not cool gizmos.


12. I think everyone expects Yahoo to find a buyer. But what if they don't?


13. I think there are going to be major changes at the highest executive levels at Microsoft and Apple. And this isn't just based on rumors about Steve Jobs' health or the personality of Steve Ballmer.

    For Microsoft, it's based on the disaster that is / was Windows Vista, failure of Microsoft to acquire Yahoo, and the apparent inability of their engineers to provide a solution for the botnet problem. For Apple, again, it's the plethora of mobile platforms, portable media players, netbooks and laptops. They can defend their market shares in telephony and portable media players only by cutting costs, and I don't see how they can possibly defend against the onslaught of Windows 7 and low-cost open source devices as capable as a Mac. I may be biased because I have never owned an Apple product, but there are reasons for that. :-)



14. I don't think Google can sustain their current trajectory. I haven't looked at their financials recently, but they have ventured into a number of areas where they don't have a compelling advantage. There's a saying in the markets: "No tree grows to the sky." I'd look for them to cut loose some things that aren't panning out, and I wouldn't count on advertising subsidizing all of their other services too much longer. Microsoft may well have the last laugh in a "Google - Microsoft war". :-)


15. Everything else
    
    
16. The incoming Congress and White House have clearly communicated their intent to improve the lot of the middle class. I'm not sure how that's defined, but I'm guessing that if you are reading this, you are not middle class. :-) So I wouldn't look for any help from "the government" until the "middle class" has the resources to take advantage of your goods and services.


17. I think the "recession" is going to be shorter in the USA than the general consensus of predictions in the USA. But I think it's going to be longer and deeper in Europe and Asia. I think the FIRE sector is healing nicely, there should be a boost when the television industry cuts over to the newer technologies in the spring, and I don't think there is either a major upside or downside risk to gasoline prices. But I expect the transportation sector to remain chaotic because of the terrible balance sheets of the automobile manufacturers and airlines.


18. To end on a positive note, I think there are going to be some major advances in world politics, human rights, the environment and the global war on disease and poverty in 2009. For example, I think we'll see another US-brokered deal between Israel and the Palestinians. I think we'll see the fall of several oppressive regimes, and I think we could even see Korea re-unified in 2009.

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